With Barack Obama’s campaign falling apart it appears as though the fate of Republicans might not be as bleak as once thought. Since the election of 2006 when Democrats won a majority in the house and senate the general consensus was that the Democrats would extend their majorities in the house and senate and win the white house in 2008.

 All that has changed in just a few short weeks. Barack Obama, while he still may win, has shown us that he is a horrible candidate and that when there is no teleprompter in front of him is a babbling idiot. His selection of another babbling idiot for his running mate hasn’t helped. Both Obama and Biden continue to try to out gaffe each other.

 Besides Obama losing ground and falling behind McCain (a candidate that Democrats should be beating in the polls by 20 points) in the polls, Obama’s ineptitude appears to be having an effect on congressional polls and Republicans suddenly don’t appear as vulnerable as previously thought.

A potential shift in fortunes for the Republicans in Congress is seen in the latest USA Today/Gallup survey, with the Democrats now leading the Republicans by just 3 percentage points, 48% to 45%, in voters’ “generic ballot” preferences for Congress. This is down from consistent double-digit Democratic leads seen on this measure over the past year.

 But it gets even better for Republicans, not only may they not lose more seats in the house and senate, they may regain a majority.

Republicans, who are now much more enthused about the 2008 election than they were prior to the convention, show heightened interest in voting, and thus outscore Democrats in apparent likelihood to vote in November. As a result, Republican candidates now lead Democratic candidates among likely voters by 5 percentage points, 50% to 45%.

If these numbers are sustained through Election Day — a big if — Republicans could be expected to regain control of the U.S. House of Representatives.

 But besides the polls turning against the Democrats, it gets even better for Republicans based on the dismal approval ratings of congress.

The last time the yearly average for approval of Congress approached this low a level was in 2006, when the Republicans lost majority control of Congress after 12 years in power. The previous occasion was in 1994, when the Republicans wrested control from the Democrats. In both of these midterm election years, the average congressional approval score was 25%.

 In a year that the Democrat presidential candidate should have a twenty point lead Barack Obama has manged to fall behind in the polls. One of Barack Obama’s strategies has been to try to tie John McCain to George W Bush. We keep hearing that John McCain would be serving Bush’s third term. This has been a strategy of Democrats in senate races also. Here in New Hampshire Jeanne Shaheen is trying to tie John Sununu to George Bush. Evidently Democrats forgot that Bush isn’t on the ballot this year. They so desperately want to vote against him again that they are trying to vote against him by proxy. Republicans up for re-election have been trying to distance themselves from the president.

 Now however, something interesting is happening. With Barack Obama’s falling poll numbers, Democrats who are up for re-election are starting to distance themselves from Obama. Once considered the inevitable president, Democrats are running away from Barack Obama.

A Democratic fundraiser for Congressional candidates said some planned to distance themselves from Mr Obama and not attack Mr McCain.

“If people are voting for McCain it could help Republicans all the way down the ticket, even in a year when the Democrats should be sweeping all before us,” said the fundraiser, a former Hillary Clinton supporter.

 The most vulnerable of these candidates are first term representatives who only won the seats because of disgruntled voters sending a message to George W Bush. Now with the feeling that the message was sent it appears that these Republican leaning districts may swing back to the right.

Concern was greatest among first-term representatives who won seats in traditionally Republican districts in the landslide of 2006. “Several of them face a real fight to hold on to those seats,” the fundraiser said.

 Who knows if Barack Obama’s free fall is going to continue, but I do know that it has been fun to watch his inevitability being whittled away. He was on his worldwide inauguration tour not all that long ago and now polls show that not only is he in free fall but that his poor campaign might also cost Democrats a chance to gain a veto proof majority in the house and senate. And Democrats are running away from the one who would be president.

 Barack Obama may still win the white house and Democrats may still extend their majorities in the house and senate, but watching them sweat and watching them flee from Barack Obama like rats deserting a sinking ship has been enjoyable. It may not last, but while it does I am gong to enjoy it.

 Who knows, this trend could continue all the way until November and Barack Obama might just pull off the unthinkable. He may pull defeat from the jaws of victory.

~mpinkeyes

 Wake Up America

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